This season obviously has not gone as planned for the Giants. The World Series Champions currently reside in last place and face a massive 16.5 game deficit with only 44 games remaining. We knew the Dodgers were going to improve from last year with their high-profile free agents signings (Zach Greinke I'm looking at you), but combined with Puigmania and their recent hot streak (39-8!!), they have turned into one of the best teams in baseball. Needless to say, it is a pretty safe bet that the Giants will miss the postseason. Now that we have gone through the 5 stages of baseball depression and accepted that the 2013 season is a lost cause, we can take a look at some possible offseason moves the Giants might make in preparation for next season.
The first part of the baseball offseason begins with options on contracts and qualifying offers. According to Cots Contracts, the only decision on an option that the club has to face concerns the contract of Ryan Vogelsong (Barry Zito's doesn't count, as it will most certainly be declined)s. To say that Vogelsong has had a bad year would be an understatement, as he currently sports a 6.71 ERA and has been limited to 51 innings as a result of various injuries. Give him the heave ho, right? Not so fast. First off, his option is pretty cheap, coming in at 6.5 million dollars. Secondly, Vogelsong's peripherals, or stats that the pitcher has complete control over, are more in line with an average pitcher than the batting practice machine that Vogelsong has been this year. In fact, his strikeout rate (18.0%) and walk rate (8.6%) are almost identical to his breakout 2011 season (18.5 K%, 8.1 BB%) when he went 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA. Combined with the fact that the Giants only have two starting pitchers under contract for next year, it makes sense for the Giants to take a one year gamble on Vogelsong in the hopes that he rediscovers his 2011-12 magic.
Now on to the Giants' impending free agents. Right now, 6 players on the current roster are due for free agency. Jeff Franceour and Andres Torres have been non-factors and likely won't be back. Chad Gaudin and Javier Lopez have been excellent, but neither have pitched enough innings nor hold the track record to be offered a one year, 13-14 million dollar contract. That leaves Pence and Lincecum. Pence has been terrific for the Giants this year and Lincecum has turned it around recently following his no-hitter, so the Giants would be foolish to let either player walk without draft-pick compensation attatched to them. Both are sure to turn the offers down given their recent strong play and long track records.
So now what. Assuming all goes to plan, that leaves the Giants with two gaping holes in the outfield and two empty slots in the rotation. The Giants farm system is rather thin right now, and most of their high-end players such as Kyle Crick are in the lower levels of the minors. As much as any Giants fan would love to see it, the Giants won't be trading for Giancarlo Stanton any time so. That leaves free agency. While this year's class is pretty dull, there are a couple of players that would make perfect sense for the Giants and get them right back on track for next year.
The first part of the offseason plan revolves around Cuban defector José Abreu. When news broke that Abreu had defected, various comps flew around ranging from Miguel Cabrera to Ryan Howard. One thing is certain, though: Abreu has game changing power. Take a look at his 2010-11 stats in the Cuban league if you have any doubt (.453 AVG/ 597 OBP/.986 SLG)! Plus, as a right hander Abreu would fit rather nicely at AT&T park because the left field walls are much closer to home plate than those in right. There is one problem, though, in that Brandon Belt currently mans the position. The solution? Stick Belt in left or right field, simultaneously filling one of those gaping holes in the outfield. His offense would play better in the outfield, and his decent speed would aide him in tracking down balls in the outfield.
With the signing of Abreu, the Giants would have one more hole to fill in the outfield with Belt moving over there. Looking at the outfield free agents, the big names in the corners are the aforementioned Pence, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Mike Morse, and Nelson Cruz. Out of all those names, Cruz would appear to be the biggest gamble, as he is coming off a 50 game suspension. However, he may also turn out to yield the highest bang for the buck out of all the free agents. If the Giants were able to get him to sign a similar deal to fellow PED user Melky Cabrera's 2 year 16 million dollar contract, the return could be huge. Cruz was putting up big numbers before he got suspended, and his .269/.330/.511 line would surely be welcome in the Giants lineup.
For the rotation, the Giants' best bet is to spread the remaining money out on low-risk, high-upside players who could put up big seasons in AT&T Park's spacious confines. Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay are two players who have struggled with injuries and underperformed their peripherals this season, and could be had for low-priced contracts. The upside of having two aces at the back of the rotation should be attractive enough for the Giants to pounce on at least one of these pitchers determined to return to their former glory.
Can the Giants afford all of these additions? They are currently on the hook for $85 million in guaranteed contracts, and combined with the addition of Vogelsong's option and arbitration salaries, the team will likely be on the hook for more like $95 - $100 million without taking free agent contracts into account. That leaves about $35 million in budget space. To be on the conservative side, let's say that both Abreu and Cruz sign deals with an AAV of around $10 million. That would be reasonable for both players, considering that Cruz carries the stigma of a PED suspension and no player coming out of Cuba has commanded a $10 million salary before. That would leave roughly $15 million available to sign 3 starting pitchers. Considering that Johnson currently has an ERA north of 6.00 and Halladay is coming off major shoulder surgery, both of those players shouldn't command a contract north of $7 or $ 8 million. Add a couple of low cost relievers and back-up starters for $1 or $2 million, and the Giants might just squeeze under their current salary this year. Add it all up, and the Giants have to high-upside power bats in Cruz and Abreu and two potential aces in Johnson and Halladay. Sounds like a recipe for another World Series title!
