Friday, June 21, 2013

AL All Star Team


As we get into the middle part of June, the baseball season has heated up along with the weather. Consequently, players are racking up enough plate appearances to the point where the leaderboards and stats start to gain credibility. There are no more qualified players batting .400 or on pace to hit 80 home runs, so now the real stars and breakout players are starting to appear and cement their status as All-Star contenders. Today, we will take a look at the possible lineups for this summer’s midsummer classic in Citi Field.

In accordance with the rules, lets set the roster at 33 players (and 5 final vote candidates). The rosters have consistently had 21 hitters and 13 pitchers, so let’s keep to these standards. Additionally, every team must be represented on the team. With these conditions in mind, I have assembled below the ideal All Star roster in my mind (Starters in bold).

First Base:

Chris Davis, BAL +4.2 WAR - Second-best hitter in the American League, leading the league in home runs… the list goes on. He’s the unquestioned starting first baseman.

Mark Trumbo, LAA +2.0 WAR - This was a very questionable pick due to Prince Fielder’s prowess at the plate. However, Trumbo’s superior base running and defense more than make up for Fielder’s edge in the hitting department.

Second Base:

Dustin Pedroia, BOS +2.5 WAR – He’s not hitting for much power but doing everything else at an All-Star level, so this was an easy pick. Gold Glove candidate and almost .400 OBP an all-star starter make. 

Howie Kendrick, LAA +2.3 WAR – Kendrick is currently the best-hitting second baseman in the AL. He’s a very good all-star backup and a case could be made for him to be the starter this year.

Shortstop:

Johnny Peralta, DET +3.0 WAR – Steroid allegations notwithstanding, Peralta has been absolutely raking this year. Some of that has ben BABIP-driven of course (.418!), but even so he’s the best SS in the AL right now.

JJ Hardy, BAL – +2.0 WAR Hardy has been hitting for enough power this year to make up for his on-base deficiencies, and his slick glove pushes him onto the All-Star team as a SS.

Third Base:

Miguel Cabrera, DET +4.4 WAR – Probably the best hitter in the game, Cabrera is having an even better season than his triple-crown winner last year. His offensive firepower more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies.

Evan Longoria, TB +4.1 WAR – Longoria is on an absolute tear this year, keeping the Rays in the race with timely hitting and excellent defense. Longoria would be on pace to win the silver slugger if it wasn’t for Cabrera, and the gold glove if not for Manchado. He is the second best third baseman in the league.

Manny Manchado, BAL +4.0 WAR – Right now Manchado looks like the best defender in baseball, leading all of baseball with a 14.6 UZR. He also is leading the league with 33 doubles.

Josh Donaldson, OAK +3.0 WAR – Donaldson is exceeding all expectations this year, putting up a 142 wRC+ and playing a nice third base to boot. He is one of the big reasons the A’s are in first this year.


Catcher:

Joe Mauer, MIN +3.1 WAR – Joe Mauer may never hit for the same power he displayed in 2009, but even without it he still is the class of the AL with his on-base skills.

Carlos Santana, CLE +1.9 WAR – Cleveland’s lone all-star representative, Santana is both getting on base at a good clip and hitting for solid power. An offensive-minded catcher whose hitting makes up for his shoddy defense.

Jason Castro, HOU +1.9 WAR – While Castro is also a team rep like Santana, his solid hitting for a catcher merits his All Star selection, although he is probably the least-qualified player on this list.


Designated Hitter:

David Ortiz, BOS +2.0 WAR – No player is more of a slam-dunk selection as Ortiz is. Papi came back from his injury as strong as ever, as his 162 wRC+ sits on the top of the DH leaderboard.

Outfield:

Mike Trout LF, LAA +4.3 WAR – Trout may not be having quite as good a season as the one last year, but it is still good enough to keep him in the MVP conversation. Trout’s five tools make him far and away the best outfielder in baseball.

Jose Bautista RF, TOR +2.7 WAR Bautista isn’t necessarily tearing the cover off the ball, but he still should be the starter in right field due to the underwhelming crop of outfielders in the AL this year. His offense is still good, and according to UZR he is having his best defensive season this year.

Brett Gardner CF, NYY +2.6 WAR Wait, what? When you see Gardner as the CF starter for the All Star game, you know something is wrong. But the reality is that while many of the top AL outfielders have floundered (looking at you Josh Hamilton), Gardner seized the center field job in NYY and never looked back. With excellent base running and defense supplanted by above-average offense, Gardner is worthy of starting the All Star Game.

Alex Rios, CWS +2.3 WAR– Rios isn’t doing anything incredible, but instead is performing at an above average level in every facet in the game (116 wRC+, 2.6+ runs on the bases, 7.1+ runs in the field). Put it all together, and you get a capable all-star backup.

Coco Crisp, OAK +2.0 WAR– Crisp has cooled off from his early power surge, but is still getting on base at a good clip and putting his opportunities to use on the bases. Another pick that isn’t flashy but gets the job done.

Adam Jones, KCR +1.9 WAR– Jones has many doubters among the saber metric community, but despite his hatred of taking a walk (2.5 BB%), he still is driving the ball (AL leading 15 HR) and getting on base thanks to his .303 batting average. Jones would be a terrific pinch-hitting option for Jim Leyland if the AL needed power from the bench.

Pitchers:

Clay Buchholz, BOS +2.9 WAR – Buchholz has simply been outstanding this year and leads qualified starters in ERA. His solid peripherals back up his run prevention, and Jim Leyland should have no fear in tabbing Buchholz to start the game.

Felix Hernandez, SEA +3.1 WAR – Hernandez has been his usual self this year, which is code for really freaking good. Hernandez is turning in yet another Cy-Young caliber season and was an easy selection

Yu Darvish, TEX +3.0 WAR – Darvish has been absolutely ridiculous this year, posting the highest strikeout rate among qualified starters with his seemingly endless arsenal of pitches. Darvish is everything that people thought Dice-K was going to be: a legitimate ace.

Anibal Sanchez, DET +3.1 WAR – Sanchez has been lighting up the AL this year with his dominating stuff and came two outs away from a no-hitter. He is leading the AL in fielding-independent WAR despite making only 13 starts due to injury.

Doug Fister, DET +2.8 WAR – Fister is turning into the next Dan Haren, with his refusal to give up walks and above-average strikeout rate. He has also been stingy about giving up home runs, something Haren was not good at. In any case, Fister has been excellent despite his underwhelming Detroit defense behind him.

Justin Verlander, DET +2.7 WAR – If it weren’t for his pedigree, Verlander would probably not make this list. He simply has given up too many runs and currently sports an average-looking 3.72 ERA. However, much of this is due to his sky high BABIP (.344) that is most certainly a product of the bad Detroit defense. He is striking out more batters than ever (10.37) and is too good to take off the roster.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA +2.2 WAR - A relatively unknown player before this season, Iwakuma has turned in a fantastic out of nowhere season with a 2.06 ERA. A good strikeout rate and terrific walk rate will usually do the trick, and Iwakuma has done exactly that.

Max Scherzer, DET +3.1 WAR – Scherzer has finally harnessed his amazing stuff and is currently in the middle of his finest season to date. Scherzer would be the staff ace on any other team, and might be better than Verlander right now. Off to a 10-0 start, the sky is the limit for Scherzer and it doesn’t look like he’ll be losing any time soon.

James Shields, KC +2.3 WAR – While many heavily scrutinized Dayton Moore for trading in Myers for a new ace, Shields has lived up to the billing and done everything that the Royals could ask for. While his run-prevention skills (2.72 ERA) haven’t exactly translated into wins (2-6 record), Shields has been a bright spot for a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Mariano Rivera NYY +1.48 WPA– Mo has been fantastic in his farewell season with New York, with 25 saves against 1 blown save. He is one of the main reasons the Yankees are still in the playoff race and will be Jim Leyland’s go to option in the 9th.

Jessie Crain CWS +2.15 WPA – Crain has been the most lockdowny (not a real word) setup man in the league this year, only allowing 2 runs to date in 34 appearance, good for a .55 ERA. His success can be attributed to a career high strikeout (11.85 K/9), and he will probably be Leyland’s first option to pitch in the 8th inning.

Greg Holland KC +0.73 WPA – The Royals haven’t had many save opportunities this year, but when they do Holland almost always converts them to wins (15 out of 17). Holland’s blazing fastball and nasty slider have led to a ridiculous 14.19 K/9 and should inspire confidence as a strikeout-option for Leyland.

Glenn Perkins MIN +1.72 WPA – Perkins is one of the main reasons the Twins have held their head above water this season (a 33-36 record should be considered a success for the Twins). Perkins has converted 18 out of 20 save opportunities with outstanding strikeout (13.01 K/9) and walk (1.95 BB/9) rates. A former starter, Leyland could easily call on Perkins to pitch multiple innings if the need arises.

Final Vote Candidates :

Grant Balfour, OAK +2.62 WPA – Balfour has been lights out for the Oakland bullpen and leads all AL relievers with 2.62 wins added according to win-probability. A worthy choice.

Chris Sale, CWS +2.3 WAR – Sale has been All-Star worthy based off his rate stats, but hasn’t pitched enough innings to make the initial cut. Some of this has to do with the White Sox careful handling of him due to his age, but regardless Sale would be a fine addition to the All-Star staff.

Kyle Seager, SEA +2.7 WAR – Seager would probably make the All-Star team any other year, but for some reason this year is the year of the third baseman. With 4 other third baseman on the team already, I couldn’t fit Seager on the team. He would, however, be a terrific 34th man on the team and can play both second and third.

Robinson Cano, NYY +1.9 WAR – Cano hasn’t had his typical MVP-type season this year, but his hitting (122 wRC+) is still good enough to be in the conversation for the All Star team. 

Derek Holland, TEX +2.8 WAR – If it weren’t for all those Tiger starting pitchers, Holland probably would’ve made my fantasy all-star team. Still, Holland’s solid performance this year shouldn’t be forgotten, and if I had to choose I would tab him to be the 34th man on the team.

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