The Perfect Offseason Plan for the Giants

This season obviously has not gone as planned for the Giants. The World Series Champions currently reside in last place and face a massive 16.5 game deficit with only 44 games remaining. We knew the Dodgers were going to improve from last year with their high-profile free agents signings (Zach Greinke I'm looking at you), but combined with Puigmania and their recent hot streak (39-8!!), they have turned into one of the best teams in baseball. Needless to say, it is a pretty safe bet that the Giants will miss the postseason. Now that we have gone through the 5 stages of baseball depression and accepted that the 2013 season is a lost cause, we can take a look at some possible offseason moves the Giants might make in preparation for next season.

The first part of the baseball offseason begins with options on contracts and qualifying offers. According to Cots Contracts, the only decision on an option that the club has to face concerns the contract of Ryan Vogelsong (Barry Zito's doesn't count, as it will most certainly be declined)s. To say that Vogelsong has had a bad year would be an understatement, as  he currently sports a 6.71 ERA and has been limited to 51 innings as a result of various injuries. Give him the heave ho, right? Not so fast. First off, his option is pretty cheap, coming in at 6.5 million dollars. Secondly, Vogelsong's peripherals, or stats that the pitcher has complete control over, are more in line with an average pitcher than the batting practice machine that Vogelsong has been this year. In fact, his strikeout rate (18.0%) and walk rate (8.6%) are almost identical to his breakout 2011 season (18.5 K%, 8.1 BB%) when he went 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA. Combined with the fact that the Giants only have two starting pitchers under contract for next year, it makes sense for the Giants to take a one year gamble on Vogelsong in the hopes that he rediscovers his 2011-12 magic.

Now on to the Giants' impending free agents. Right now, 6 players on the current roster are due for free agency. Jeff Franceour and Andres Torres have been non-factors and likely won't be back. Chad Gaudin and Javier Lopez have been excellent, but neither have pitched enough innings nor hold the track record to be offered a one year, 13-14 million dollar contract. That leaves Pence and Lincecum. Pence has been terrific for the Giants this year and Lincecum has turned it around recently following his no-hitter, so the Giants would be foolish to let either player walk without draft-pick compensation attatched to them. Both are sure to turn the offers down given their recent strong play and long track records.

So now what. Assuming all goes to plan, that leaves the Giants with two gaping holes in the outfield and two empty slots in the rotation. The Giants farm system is rather thin right now, and most of their high-end players such as Kyle Crick are in the lower levels of the minors. As much as any Giants fan would love to see it, the Giants won't be trading for Giancarlo Stanton any time so. That leaves free agency. While this year's class is pretty dull, there are a couple of players that would make perfect sense for the Giants and get them right back on track for next year.

The first part of the offseason plan revolves around Cuban defector José Abreu. When news broke that Abreu had defected, various comps flew around ranging from Miguel Cabrera to Ryan Howard. One thing is certain, though: Abreu has game changing power. Take a look at his 2010-11 stats in the Cuban league if you have any doubt (.453 AVG/ 597 OBP/.986 SLG)! Plus, as a right hander Abreu would fit rather nicely at AT&T park because the left field walls are much closer to home plate than those in right. There is one problem, though, in that Brandon Belt currently mans the position. The solution? Stick Belt in left or right field, simultaneously filling one of those gaping holes in the outfield. His offense would play better in the outfield, and his decent speed would aide him in tracking down balls in the outfield.

With the signing of Abreu, the Giants would have one more hole to fill in the outfield with Belt moving over there. Looking at the outfield free agents, the big names in the corners are the aforementioned Pence, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Mike Morse, and Nelson Cruz. Out of all those names, Cruz would appear to be the biggest gamble, as he is coming off a 50 game suspension. However, he may also turn out to yield the highest bang for the buck out of all the free agents. If the Giants were able to get him to sign a similar deal to fellow PED user Melky Cabrera's 2 year 16 million dollar contract, the return could be huge. Cruz was putting up big numbers before he got suspended, and his .269/.330/.511 line would surely be welcome in the Giants lineup.

For the rotation, the Giants' best bet is to spread the remaining money out on low-risk, high-upside players who could put up big seasons in AT&T Park's spacious confines. Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay are two players who have struggled with injuries and underperformed their peripherals this season, and could be had for low-priced contracts. The upside of having two aces at the back of the rotation should be attractive enough for the Giants to pounce on at least one of these pitchers determined to return to their former glory.

Can the Giants afford all of these additions? They are currently on the hook for $85 million in guaranteed contracts, and combined with the addition of Vogelsong's option and arbitration salaries, the team will likely be on the hook for more like $95 - $100 million without taking free agent contracts into account. That leaves about $35 million in budget space. To be on the conservative side, let's say that both Abreu and Cruz sign deals with an AAV of around $10 million. That would be reasonable for both players, considering that Cruz carries the stigma of a PED suspension and no player coming out of Cuba has commanded a $10 million salary before. That would leave roughly $15 million available to sign 3 starting pitchers. Considering that Johnson currently has an ERA north of 6.00 and Halladay is coming off major shoulder surgery, both of those players shouldn't command a contract north of $7 or $ 8 million. Add a couple of low cost relievers and back-up starters for $1 or $2 million, and the Giants might just squeeze under their current salary this year. Add it all up, and the Giants have to high-upside power bats in Cruz and Abreu and two potential aces in Johnson and Halladay. Sounds like a recipe for another World Series title!

Thought On Dwight Howard

     Dwight Howard's move to the Houston Rockets is simply yet another exclamation point on the NBA's changed culture. Stars simply do not have the desire to win a title by themselves;they join up with their other star buddies. The Olympics have perhaps created the largest shift. The 2008 team went on to change the sports world when Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh discussed playing on their own team. In the NBA enemies and rivalries have really ceased to exist. Celtics-Lakers, Knicks-Pacers, and Knicks-Heat aren't the same any longer. The animosity isn't there; the two teams don't go for the others' guts because after the game the stars are going out to drink. Dwight Howard is the culmination of all budding culture. Howard jumps from team to team, bandwagon to bandwagon, until he finds one that works. If Nash and Kobe didn't work, is James Harden really going to work?
     Already turmoil is rising among the Rockets. Although Howard and Harden took an Instagram pic together, the other members of the team are less than thrilled. Omer Asik immediately wanted out when he found out the news. He doesn't want to play with Howard who is going to want the ball then mope and sulk when he doesn't receive it. Dwight better play close attention to the lessons Hakeem Olajuwon  will give him. There is no other center in the league who comes close to rivaling Howard. The man should have at the very least a ring and an MVP at this point in the career. A physical specimen, no one besides Lebron posses the athleticism that Howard fails to utilize. Throughout his eight years in the league Howard has failed to develop any great post moves. For a player of his stature, greatness is what must be accomplished.
     Calling Howard a man as I have is far too much of a compliment for him. To come out of high school was a far bigger mistake than most realize. Dwight never really grew up; he has been known to whip towels in the locker room and crack jokes during games. When a player comes to the NBA it is time for him to grow up and to mature. The NBA is serious and now more than ever it is about winning titles to cement your legacy. Right now Howard's legacy is one of disappointment and now it has become high time that he realizes the fact of the matter. I remember watching the 2011 Finals and even though I was ardently rooting for the Mavericks, I still felt let down by Lebron's performance. But now two seasons later Lebron hold my respect. I hate and rage against him as much as ever, but I respect him. I want to respect a player as good as Howard can be, but he needs to earn that.
     Dwight needs to shut his mouth and win something in his league this season, or he's done as a star player. He can't take criticism and won't be able to handle the hate like James.

Quick Thoughts On The All Star Game

     The MLB All Star game has grown to an astounding level of ridiculousness in recent years. Now "It Counts" and in deciding World Series home field advantage, a major part of the game has been placed to what is supposed to be a sideshow. The All Star Game originally in 1933 was meant to be an opportunity for fans to watch players from all cities. With the introduction of MLB.tv packages and the ability to watch many many games a week  has caused the All Star Game to lose its sparkle. Now its time to end it.
     I do believe that it is time to end this declining tradition, but there are ways to improve the product. First off lets abolish the rule that there must be a representative from each team. The AL and NL teams should simply be filled with the best players from each league. Yes, Jose Altuve (.295,.328,.379) is a nice player and a good story with his short stature, but he is a member of the game's elite. Hell, no! I would much rather see another Cardinals or Braves player than watch Jose Altuve go 0-1.
     Number two get rid of fan voting. Fan voting is a way for the fans to be a part of the game but the idea is a complete failure. Right now Derek Jeter, a player who hasn't participated in a single game this year, is one of the leaders for shortstop. Am I expected to let Joe Schmo football fan who logs onto MLB.com for fun to have as much of a voice as the voices inside the game. Right now a scout would have as much of an impact on the players as this guy Joe Schmo. I don't need to see Jeter, Jose Reyes, and a shell of his former self Albert Pujols in the game. Just because most fans don't know the true stars of the game like Juan Segura, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis shouldn't mean the rest of us have to suffer.
     The All Star game is meant to be a sideshow; don;t attach more importance to this game then there is meant to be at its core. That's like taking Tropic Thunder and saying Best Picture at the Oscars should be decided on which movie is the most similar to the movie. Terrible idea! Also one last thought...if the managers are supposed to try to win the game, then how come every player gets an at bat. I remember a couple of years ago Brandon Inge came up, grounded out and got high fives for being an all star. That's simply not what this game is about.

AL All Star Team

As we get into the middle part of June, the baseball season has heated up along with the weather. Consequently, players are racking up enough plate appearances to the point where the leaderboards and stats start to gain credibility. There are no more qualified players batting .400 or on pace to hit 80 home runs, so now the real stars and breakout players are starting to appear and cement their status as All-Star contenders. Today, we will take a look at the possible lineups for this summer’s midsummer classic in Citi Field.

In accordance with the rules, lets set the roster at 33 players (and 5 final vote candidates). The rosters have consistently had 21 hitters and 13 pitchers, so let’s keep to these standards. Additionally, every team must be represented on the team. With these conditions in mind, I have assembled below the ideal All Star roster in my mind (Starters in bold).

First Base:

Chris Davis, BAL +4.2 WAR - Second-best hitter in the American League, leading the league in home runs… the list goes on. He’s the unquestioned starting first baseman.

Mark Trumbo, LAA +2.0 WAR - This was a very questionable pick due to Prince Fielder’s prowess at the plate. However, Trumbo’s superior base running and defense more than make up for Fielder’s edge in the hitting department.

Second Base:

Dustin Pedroia, BOS +2.5 WAR – He’s not hitting for much power but doing everything else at an All-Star level, so this was an easy pick. Gold Glove candidate and almost .400 OBP an all-star starter make. 

Howie Kendrick, LAA +2.3 WAR – Kendrick is currently the best-hitting second baseman in the AL. He’s a very good all-star backup and a case could be made for him to be the starter this year.

Shortstop:

Johnny Peralta, DET +3.0 WAR – Steroid allegations notwithstanding, Peralta has been absolutely raking this year. Some of that has ben BABIP-driven of course (.418!), but even so he’s the best SS in the AL right now.

JJ Hardy, BAL – +2.0 WAR Hardy has been hitting for enough power this year to make up for his on-base deficiencies, and his slick glove pushes him onto the All-Star team as a SS.

Third Base:

Miguel Cabrera, DET +4.4 WAR – Probably the best hitter in the game, Cabrera is having an even better season than his triple-crown winner last year. His offensive firepower more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies.

Evan Longoria, TB +4.1 WAR – Longoria is on an absolute tear this year, keeping the Rays in the race with timely hitting and excellent defense. Longoria would be on pace to win the silver slugger if it wasn’t for Cabrera, and the gold glove if not for Manchado. He is the second best third baseman in the league.

Manny Manchado, BAL +4.0 WAR – Right now Manchado looks like the best defender in baseball, leading all of baseball with a 14.6 UZR. He also is leading the league with 33 doubles.

Josh Donaldson, OAK +3.0 WAR – Donaldson is exceeding all expectations this year, putting up a 142 wRC+ and playing a nice third base to boot. He is one of the big reasons the A’s are in first this year.

Catcher:

Joe Mauer, MIN +3.1 WAR – Joe Mauer may never hit for the same power he displayed in 2009, but even without it he still is the class of the AL with his on-base skills.

Carlos Santana, CLE +1.9 WAR – Cleveland’s lone all-star representative, Santana is both getting on base at a good clip and hitting for solid power. An offensive-minded catcher whose hitting makes up for his shoddy defense.

Jason Castro, HOU +1.9 WAR – While Castro is also a team rep like Santana, his solid hitting for a catcher merits his All Star selection, although he is probably the least-qualified player on this list.

Designated Hitter:

David Ortiz, BOS +2.0 WAR – No player is more of a slam-dunk selection as Ortiz is. Papi came back from his injury as strong as ever, as his 162 wRC+ sits on the top of the DH leaderboard.

Outfield:

Mike Trout LF, LAA +4.3 WAR – Trout may not be having quite as good a season as the one last year, but it is still good enough to keep him in the MVP conversation. Trout’s five tools make him far and away the best outfielder in baseball.

Jose Bautista RF, TOR +2.7 WAR – Bautista isn’t necessarily tearing the cover off the ball, but he still should be the starter in right field due to the underwhelming crop of outfielders in the AL this year. His offense is still good, and according to UZR he is having his best defensive season this year.

Brett Gardner CF, NYY +2.6 WAR – Wait, what? When you see Gardner as the CF starter for the All Star game, you know something is wrong. But the reality is that while many of the top AL outfielders have floundered (looking at you Josh Hamilton), Gardner seized the center field job in NYY and never looked back. With excellent base running and defense supplanted by above-average offense, Gardner is worthy of starting the All Star Game.

Alex Rios, CWS +2.3 WAR– Rios isn’t doing anything incredible, but instead is performing at an above average level in every facet in the game (116 wRC+, 2.6+ runs on the bases, 7.1+ runs in the field). Put it all together, and you get a capable all-star backup.

Coco Crisp, OAK +2.0 WAR– Crisp has cooled off from his early power surge, but is still getting on base at a good clip and putting his opportunities to use on the bases. Another pick that isn’t flashy but gets the job done.

Adam Jones, KCR +1.9 WAR– Jones has many doubters among the saber metric community, but despite his hatred of taking a walk (2.5 BB%), he still is driving the ball (AL leading 15 HR) and getting on base thanks to his .303 batting average. Jones would be a terrific pinch-hitting option for Jim Leyland if the AL needed power from the bench.

Pitchers:

Clay Buchholz, BOS +2.9 WAR – Buchholz has simply been outstanding this year and leads qualified starters in ERA. His solid peripherals back up his run prevention, and Jim Leyland should have no fear in tabbing Buchholz to start the game.

Felix Hernandez, SEA +3.1 WAR – Hernandez has been his usual self this year, which is code for really freaking good. Hernandez is turning in yet another Cy-Young caliber season and was an easy selection

Yu Darvish, TEX +3.0 WAR – Darvish has been absolutely ridiculous this year, posting the highest strikeout rate among qualified starters with his seemingly endless arsenal of pitches. Darvish is everything that people thought Dice-K was going to be: a legitimate ace.

Anibal Sanchez, DET +3.1 WAR – Sanchez has been lighting up the AL this year with his dominating stuff and came two outs away from a no-hitter. He is leading the AL in fielding-independent WAR despite making only 13 starts due to injury.

Doug Fister, DET +2.8 WAR – Fister is turning into the next Dan Haren, with his refusal to give up walks and above-average strikeout rate. He has also been stingy about giving up home runs, something Haren was not good at. In any case, Fister has been excellent despite his underwhelming Detroit defense behind him.

Justin Verlander, DET +2.7 WAR – If it weren’t for his pedigree, Verlander would probably not make this list. He simply has given up too many runs and currently sports an average-looking 3.72 ERA. However, much of this is due to his sky high BABIP (.344) that is most certainly a product of the bad Detroit defense. He is striking out more batters than ever (10.37) and is too good to take off the roster.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA +2.2 WAR - A relatively unknown player before this season, Iwakuma has turned in a fantastic out of nowhere season with a 2.06 ERA. A good strikeout rate and terrific walk rate will usually do the trick, and Iwakuma has done exactly that.

Max Scherzer, DET +3.1 WAR – Scherzer has finally harnessed his amazing stuff and is currently in the middle of his finest season to date. Scherzer would be the staff ace on any other team, and might be better than Verlander right now. Off to a 10-0 start, the sky is the limit for Scherzer and it doesn’t look like he’ll be losing any time soon.

James Shields, KC +2.3 WAR – While many heavily scrutinized Dayton Moore for trading in Myers for a new ace, Shields has lived up to the billing and done everything that the Royals could ask for. While his run-prevention skills (2.72 ERA) haven’t exactly translated into wins (2-6 record), Shields has been a bright spot for a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Mariano Rivera NYY +1.48 WPA– Mo has been fantastic in his farewell season with New York, with 25 saves against 1 blown save. He is one of the main reasons the Yankees are still in the playoff race and will be Jim Leyland’s go to option in the 9^th.

Jessie Crain CWS +2.15 WPA – Crain has been the most lockdowny (not a real word) setup man in the league this year, only allowing 2 runs to date in 34 appearance, good for a .55 ERA. His success can be attributed to a career high strikeout (11.85 K/9), and he will probably be Leyland’s first option to pitch in the 8^th inning.

Greg Holland KC +0.73 WPA – The Royals haven’t had many save opportunities this year, but when they do Holland almost always converts them to wins (15 out of 17). Holland’s blazing fastball and nasty slider have led to a ridiculous 14.19 K/9 and should inspire confidence as a strikeout-option for Leyland.

Glenn Perkins MIN +1.72 WPA – Perkins is one of the main reasons the Twins have held their head above water this season (a 33-36 record should be considered a success for the Twins). Perkins has converted 18 out of 20 save opportunities with outstanding strikeout (13.01 K/9) and walk (1.95 BB/9) rates. A former starter, Leyland could easily call on Perkins to pitch multiple innings if the need arises.

Final Vote Candidates :

Grant Balfour, OAK +2.62 WPA – Balfour has been lights out for the Oakland bullpen and leads all AL relievers with 2.62 wins added according to win-probability. A worthy choice.

Chris Sale, CWS +2.3 WAR – Sale has been All-Star worthy based off his rate stats, but hasn’t pitched enough innings to make the initial cut. Some of this has to do with the White Sox careful handling of him due to his age, but regardless Sale would be a fine addition to the All-Star staff.

Kyle Seager, SEA +2.7 WAR – Seager would probably make the All-Star team any other year, but for some reason this year is the year of the third baseman. With 4 other third baseman on the team already, I couldn’t fit Seager on the team. He would, however, be a terrific 34^th man on the team and can play both second and third.

Robinson Cano, NYY +1.9 WAR – Cano hasn’t had his typical MVP-type season this year, but his hitting (122 wRC+) is still good enough to be in the conversation for the All Star team. 

Derek Holland, TEX +2.8 WAR – If it weren’t for all those Tiger starting pitchers, Holland probably would’ve made my fantasy all-star team. Still, Holland’s solid performance this year shouldn’t be forgotten, and if I had to choose I would tab him to be the 34^th man on the team.

Thoughts after Game 2

  Tomorrow, things will be better. I can move on from the tonight's game and get my hopes up for Game Three. I can forget about each ugly moment: Lebron's block on Splitter, the Heat's umpteenth steal, and that whole terrible, horrifying 23-5 run. As a Cavaliers fan and proud member of Team Anti-Heat, I watched tonight's game I watched with a mixture of fright, amazement, and eventually nausea. Right now I can;t sort my thoughts into logical patterns, so I will part ran and half share my jumbled emotions.
     The Heat tonight showed why they are considered the best team in the league. Every three point shooter and role player achieved their job to perfection. Mike Miller and Ray Allen could not miss. Chris Anderson made a whole array of infuriating putbacks, dunks, and layups. Norris Cole chipped in with a couple of strong drives. Dwayne Wade played fresh and quick, Chris Bosh actually rebounded; heck even Shane Battier finally made a three. The way the team played brought back memories of the unstoppable juggernaut that they were in last year's playoffs and this whole season before the faced the Pacers. The game could have been even worse, which brings me top my next point...what was Lebron doing in the first half tonight?
      We watched Lebron self-combust in the first half tonight, two for ten from the field midway through the second quarter, playing passively and the most uninvolved in a long while.Tomorrow the sports world will listen to praise about the Heat's terrific game, and rightly so, but Lebron's first half should not be glossed over. Every time Lebron  had the ball in his hands he either drove with no intention of scoring, dishing to a far lesser player, or settling for a tough jumper which he missed nearly every time. What were the Spurs doing on defense? Was Kawhi Leonard simply playing tough and stingy defense? Whatever the system the Spurs were utilizing, Lebron simply cannot back down from the challenge like he did. At a certain point I thought watching that there was something tragic about watching Lebron waste his talent. Even rooting against him one feels let down or slighted when he takes that 20 foot fadeaway jumper instead of driving. Maybe this is just wishful thinking but perhaps this spurt was not a fluke and the Spurs could repeat this. Right now Lebron is averaging 17.5 ppg in this series, so the Spurs are clearly playing him the right way. Hopefully number 6 is not able to take that next step for the rest of the season.
     Heat fans are pathetic, especially the ones at the game tonight. The third quarter started and half the crowd was seated. At the end of the game nearly all of the crowd had left. This is the FINALS! What, was halftime too short for you slimeballs? GET TO YOU DAMN SEAT ON TIME! And to leave before the game ended? These fans must have spent a ton for these seats, one would think that enough would be enough to keep them there. Sit in you seats you smug S.O.B.s. I wouldn't mind the Heat nearly as much if not for their fans, who think the world is out to get them. They bring it upon themselves and they just don't realize that. Ask them who Alonzo Mourning is and at least half of "Heat fans" have no clue who he is. Have some respect for the game guys, really. This is the finals. This is sacred ground and should be treated as such. Will be back after Game 3.

NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals Predictions

 (1)   Heat vs. (5) Bulls

The banged-up Bulls fought through a tough series with the Nets, outlasting the Nets in seven. The talk of Chicago is whether star Derek Rose will make an appearance, but latest reports say this to be highly unlikely as Rose wants to be “100%.” The Heat cruised past the Bucks through four, but an eight day layoff might cause some rust in the first couple of games for the team. Lebron James is coming off the news of his fourth MVP title, proving his dominance. It will be extremely hard for the Bulls to combat the Heat’s star power, trying to use their grit and determination to get past them.

Prediction: Heat in 5

      (2)   Knicks vs. (3) Pacers

After outlasting the Celtics in six games, the Knicks need to regroup. Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith are in prolonged shooting slumps (Carmelo is 25-83 from the field in his last three games.) The Knicks will also need more production from their bench, having gotten nothing from Jason Kidd and Chris Copeland last series. Rumors are floating around that Amar’e Stoudemire might return to the team in Game 3, adding a much needed spark off that bench. The Pacers are playing to plan. Paul George is the real deal, a budding star, with Roy Hibbert and David West providing tremendous length down low. The length and athleticism of the Pacers is hard to combat.

Prediction: Knicks in 7

     (1)   Thunder vs. (5) Grizzlies

Kevin Durant continues to take on the majority of the ball-handling and other point guard responsibilities in the absence of Russell Westbrook. He has shown a tendency to become fatigued in the fourth quarter though, allowing teams to make up ground on the Thunder in the closing minutes. The Thunder need more offensive production from Serge Ibaka, who now has the responsibility of one of the main offensive contributors for the Thunder. The Grizzlies stormed back and took the series away from the Clippers in six games. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are playing like the beasts they are down low, and with Mike Conley feeling more confident in his shot, the Grizzlies are a tremendous team. Kevin Durant us going to have tough time with the physical Grizzlies this series.

Predictions: Grizzlies in 6

(     (2)   Spurs vs. (6) Warriors

The aging Spurs are against the up-and-coming Warriors. The backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, a backcourt which prompted Coach Mark Jackson to call “The best shooting of all time” is absolutely lights out. Curry is transforming to a star before our very eyes. Andrew Bogut brings dependable toughness to the team. The Spurs still maintain their big three of Tim Duncan. Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili, but Kawai Leonard and Danny Green are tremendous complementary pieces. Coach Pop is a great mastermind, one of the best ever. The Warriors shooting and athleticism will be tough for the Spurs to handle.

Prediction: Warriors in 6

NL Predictions

                NL East:

1.       Nationals

2.       Braves

3.       Phillies

4.       Mets

5.       Marlins

                NL Central:

1.       Reds

2.       Cardinals

3.       Brewers

4.       Pirates

5.       Cubs                                                                                                                                                                                             

                NL West:

1.       Giants

2.       Dodgers

3.       Diamondbacks

4.       Rockies

5.       Padres

Playoff Predictions:

NL East: Nationals

NL Central: Reds

NL West: Giants

Wildcard #1: Braves

Wildcard #2: Dodgers

NLDS: Nationals vs. Braves (recent wildcard addition allows for division rivals to play in round),

            Reds vs. Giants

NLCS: Nationals vs. Giants

NLCS Winner: Nationals

World Series: Tigers vs. Nationals

WS Winner: Nationals

NBA Playoff Predictions Part 2

George Klein     

                                                                Western Conference

(1)    OKC Thunder vs. (8) Houston Rockets

The Thunder had a relatively easy season, steamrolling the conference to the first seed. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were good as always, and Kevin Martin brings offensive punch off the bench. The Rockets rode GM Daryl Morey’s moneyballish moves to a surprising finish in the playoffs. The Rockets are led by James Harden, traded by the Thunder last off season  who is definitely looking for redemption. Despite Harden’s best efforts though , the outlook does not look good for the Rockets this series.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

(2)    San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers

A season for the Lakers filled with ups and downs finally reaches its end in this series. With Kobe Bryant out for the season with a torn Achilles, the situation is bleak. Can Dwight Howard show the maturity to lead this team? Can he and Pau Gasol work well together when they are on the court at the same time? Can Nash return from injury pain-free and 100%? In any case, Dwight Howard is going to have to make his free throws for the Lakers to entertain thoughts of an upset; he shot under 50% for the season and teams frequently employed the Hack-a-Howard strategy. The Spurs meanwhile keep chugging along. Tim Duncan was as good as ever, Tony Parker had a great season, which, before he was struck by injury, placed him in the MVP conversation (before Lebron went crazy of course).

Prediction: Spurs in 5

(3)    Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Golden State Warriors

The Nuggets took several steps forward this season, the capper a 15 game winning streak. But with Danillo Gallinari out for the season, things will get tougher for the team this series. On the other side the Warriors led by Steph Curry’s record-breaking three point field goals, made a surprise run to the playoffs. Game 1 though was heartbreaking for the team with Andre Miller’s buzzer beater and losing David Lee for the rest of the season. The Nuggets are more athletic with Andre Iguodala, and have reason to be confidant.

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

(4)    Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

This rematch from last year’s postseason will be hard-fought and closely contested. After trading away Rudy Gay, the Grizzlies have soared, led by their center Marc Gasol. Lob City is in full force, with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin each having magnificent seasons. The teams are play the same styles as last season, and looking at the exciting series they played, this series is one to watch for.

Prediction: Clippers in 7

NBA Playoffs first round predictions

George Klein                                      

4/21/2013

                                                             EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1)    Miami Heat vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks

This series is going to be rough for the Bucks. The Heat have steamrolled through the entire league all season and they show no sign of stopping. On the other side, the Bucks have been up and down, sneaking into the playoffs not necessarily on their own merit, but the weakness of the whole conference. Brandon Jennings is going to chuck way too many shots throughout the whole series (especially after his bold claim the Bucks will win this series in 6); if he gets crazy hot one game, sparking memories of his 56 point outburst his rookie season, the Bucks might be able to scrap out a win. The greatest player in the league Lebron James and the best team are here and here to stay. If Wade and Bosh keep up their season long efficiency with Shane Battier and Mike Miller canning threes, this series could reach historical blowout heights.

Prediction: Heat in 4

(     (2)    New York Knicks vs. (7) Boston Celtics

The Knicks are looking to reclaim their glory at MSG these playoffs, led by star Carmelo Anthony, who looks to be advancing to the second round for only the second time in his career. He is joined by probable 6^th man of the year J.R. Smith, and a strong supporting class with the likes of veteran Jason Kidd, comeback story Kenyon Martin, and up and coming Chris Copeland. Meanwhile, the Celtics endured a season full of troubles and turmoil. PG Rajon Rondo is out for the season with a torn ACL and Kevin Garnett is battling a knee injury. The Celtics are hungry, especially after the events surrounding the Boston Marathon last week. Their window of opportunity closing, the Celtics look for Paul Pierce and Jeff Green to handle much of the scoring load.

Prediction: Knicks in 5

(     (3)    Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks

In all likelihood, it would take a miracle for the Hawks to win this series. The Pacers are just better in every facet of the game; they’re longer, quicker, and better shooters. Paul George is the catalyst for this team; all the offence runs through him. Roy Hibbert and David West form a powerful backcourt for the Pacers. Hibbert provides defensive punch, blocking around 2.5 shots per game, and West’s main strength is on the offensive side, averaging about 17ppg. The Hawks are led by pg Jeff Teague who had a strong season, Josh Smith who is trying to prove that he is a star in this league deserving a max contract, and Al Horford who is dependable at the center position.

Prediction: Pacers in 5

(     (4)    Brooklyn Nets vs. (5) Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are still without their star Derek Rose, who reports say most likely will not be back for any part of the playoffs. So like they have all season, the Bulls are going to have to make due with Luol Deng, defensive star Joakhim Noah, and free-agent disappointment Carlos boozer. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the Nets have been hot throughout the second half of the season. Deron Williams has been on a hot streak and performing with the league’s best, Joe Johnson is improving and Brook Lopez has been a standout offensive performer at center for them all season. The Nets are looking very good in this matchup.

Prediction: Nets in 6

Western Conference predictions out soon!

Groton Sports Opinions: 2013 AL Baseball Predictions

Groton Sports Opinions: 2013 AL Baseball Predictions: George Klein                            AL EAST 1.       Tampa Bay Rays The Rays boast one of the best rotations in baseball, even a...

2013 AL Baseball Predictions

George Klein                           

AL EAST

1.      Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays boast one of the best rotations in baseball, even after trading James Shields (15-10, 3.52) to the Royals for uber-outfield prospect Wil Myers. Myers will begin the season in the minors to delay his free agency by a year, and the Rays’ other bats must compensate. Evan Longoria needs to remain healthy though this season (74 games played in 2012, 133 in 2011) for the Rays to achieve their lofty expectations for the season. Desmond Jennings will look to build on a mediocre season (.257, 15, 54, 38 SB), and put more of his tools and enormous potential to use.

Best Case: The staff performs at historic levels and with the additions of Myers, SS Yunel Escobar, and 2B Kelly Johnson to the lineup, the Rays head to the World Series

Worst Case: The pitching will still keep the team in ballgames, but with a lacking offence the Rays sink into the middle of the pack in the closely contested AL East.

2.      Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays went through massive changes in the offseason, making a shocking trade with the Marlins in an 11 player deal, signing R.A. Dickey (20-6, 2.73, 230 K) the NL Cy Young award winner and Melky Cabrera (.346, 11, 60, suspended 50 games for PEDs). Star shortstop Jose Reyes (.287,11,50,40 sb) looks to continue his strong level of production, while starting pitcher Josh Johnson (8-14, 3.81), also a part of the Marlins deal, is trying to get back  to his ace level of production,  but following years and years of injuries he might not have it in him. Mark Buerhle (13-13, 3.74) adds a veteran presence to the clubhouse while eating innings, and Jose Bautista (.241, 27, 65) needs to get back to his star form after a broken wrist injured his 2012 season.

Best Case: The offseason moves work with Dickey and Johnson leading the rotation, while Reyes and Cabrera as lineup anchors. Bautista comes back from his injury with no lingering problems, leading the team to an AL East win, and a battle in the ALCS.

Worst Case: Injuries to Johnson, Reyes, Bautista, and Brandon Morrow (10-7, 2.96) ruin this team, Cabrera and Buehrle flop, and the team ends up with an under .500 record.

3.      Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles sport a similar team that last year took a magical run to the postseason. The team is going to rely on the continued improvement of Chris Tillman (9-3, 2.93), Brian Matusz (6-10, 4.87), and Manny Machado (.262, 7, 26), along with their incredible record in one run games last season (29-9).  Star pitching prospect Dylan Bundy waits in the wings, and could provide a boost for the team in August and September. Brian Roberts (.182, 0, 5) and Nick Markakis (.298, 13, 54) will look to recover their pre-injury form; this will prove especially hard for Roberts who has been sidelined with concussions the past three seasons. Adam Jones (.287, 32, 82), and Matt Wieters (.249, 23, 83) are the growing stars and are the backbone of this team.

Best Case: 2012 proves to not be a fluke year; Machado shows great improvement at the plate while Bundy dominates down the stretch. The team gains a wildcard spot in the postseason.

Worst Case: The young players fail to improve, the O’s pitching flounders, and the team ends up with a mid-70s win total, far out of playoff contention.

4.      Boston Red Sox

After their worst season in years, a disaster under Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox must regroup to regain the affection of Red Sox Nation. Having added Shane Victorino (.255, 11, 55), Ryan Dempster (12-8, 3.38), Mike Napoli (.227, 24, 56), and Joel Hanrahan (2.72, 36 sv), the Red Sox will boast many new faces. But in order to get back to the level of play they were used to they must receive bounce back seasons from Jacoby Ellsbury (.271, 4, 26) and Jon Lester (9-14, 4.82). Will Middlebrooks (.288, 15, 54) at third needs to continue to provide a solid lineup spot.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is a star in the making in leftfield, adding a burst of enthusiasm and youth the team desperately needs.

Best Case: The clubhouse chemistry improves under the leadership of John Farrell, Ellsbury plays 150 games, the team wins 80 games and things look good for 2014.

Worst Case: The team plays old and lifeless and finishes last in the AL East in a second consecutive season for the first time since 1930.

5.      New York Yankees

This is finally the year. The dynasty is over. The Yankees are old and desolated by injuries. Teixeira(.251,24,84), Granderson (.232,43,106), Jeter(.316,15,58), and Alex Rodriguez (.272,18,57) are all casualties. Mariano Rivera (2.16, 5 sv) is still in rehab from Tommy John surgery and it could be more than a month before he is fully ready to play. Star pitching prospect Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances are still two years away from major league ready. Simply put, the the short term outlook of this team is the bleakest in almost two decades.

Best Case: The team battles hard in the AL East before fading from contention due to age in late August.

Worst Case: The team plays disinterested and soft and the Yankees fall far into the basement.

Detroit Tigers

1.      The Tigers look good this season, really really good. They have Miguel Cabrera (.330, 44,139), the Triple Crown Winner and reigning AL MVP. They have Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64, 239k), 2011 Al CY Young award winner, and the rest of a very strong rotation with Doug Fister (10-10, 3.45), Anibal Sanchez (9-13, 3.86), and Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74). The Tigers have added outfielder Tori Hunter (.313, 16, 92) and Victor Martinez (out last season with a torn ACL) to an already potent lineup. With the little competition in the AL Central, the Tigers will coast to the postseason. The only question is how far in the postseason they will go.

Best case: Cabrera and Verlander dominate once again, Martinez shows no ill effects of his injury, and the Tigers roll to the ALCS and beyond.

Worst Case: A shaky bullpen unravels and the Tigers lose in the first round of postseason action.

2.      Chicago White Sox

After a surprisingly good year in which they finished second in the AL Central, battling the Tigers all year long, the White Sox look to Chris Sale (17-8,3.05) and Jake Peavy (11-12,3.37) for the backbone rotation. For the White Sox to continue their strong run Alex Rios needs to break his inconsistency year to year (.304,25,91 in 2012, .227,13,44 in 2011) and Paul Konerko (.298,26,75) must continue to provide as the Lineups most consistent and powerful source.

Best Case: Konerko and Adam Dunn (.204, 41,96) launch a ton of balls and the team fights the Tigers all season.

Worst Case: The boppers show their age, Sale and Peavy regress, and the team stumbles to a middle of the pack AL Central finish.

3.      Kansas City Royals

The Royals are a young improving team. After an offseason trade for James Shields (15-10, 3.52, 223k) the Royals have their first bona-fide ace in years. In the lineup, Billy Butler (.313, 29,107) is a mainstay at the third spot providing power and Alex Gordon (.294, 14, 72) has developed into a strong defensive outfielder and table setter. Mike Moustakas (.242, 20, 73) looks to continue to improve on his pitch recognition skills and Eric Hosmer(.232,14,60) is trying to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore slump. A very young team the Royals will struggle mightily at some points this season but the long term outlook is optimistic.

Best Case: James Shields leads a strong rotation, all the young players continue to improve, and the Royals make a run at the second wild-card spot.

Worst Case: The young players flop, Shields is a bust, and the Royals have a 70 win season.

4.      Cleveland Indians

Terry Francona brings a new energy to a team that oftentimes played lackluster last season. Justin Masterson (11-15, 4.93) and Ubaldo Jimenez (9-17, 5.40) at the top of the rotation need to regroup after taking large steps backward last season. Asdrubal Cabrera (.270, 16, 68) and Jason Kipnis (.257, 14, 76,31sb) make up a very good middle infield. New additions Michael Bourn (.274, 9, 57,42sb), Nick Swisher (.272, 24, 93), and Mark Reynolds (.221, 23, 69) will provide speed and pop (Bourn the speed, Swisher and Reynolds the power). Star pitching prospect Trevor Bauer (1-2, 6.06) awaits in the wings at Triple-A and will most likely be called up mid-season.

Best Case: Swisher and Reynolds each hit 30, Bourn steals 45+ bags, Masterson and Jimenez regain their old form, and the Indians flirt with an above .500 record.

5.      Minnesota Twins

The Twins are in rebuilding mode. They will rely on rookie Aaron Hicks in the leadoff spot and in center field. New faces Vance Worley (6-9, 4.20) and Kevin Correia (12-11, 4.21) anchor the rotation while Mike Pelfrey (0-0, 2.29) tries to comeback from Tommy John surgery. The Twins still sport a lineup core of Joe Mauer (.310, 10, 85), Josh Willingham (.260, 35,110), and Justin Morneau (.267, 19, 77). Glen Perkins (2.56, 16sv) is looking like a blossoming star in the closer position. This team has valuable pieces, but it will be a couple of years before they are competitive in the AL Central.

Best Case: Morneau improves with a second injury free season, Pelfrey gets back to his 2011 season from, and the outlook is bright for the Twins

Worst Case: Mauer, Morneau, and Pelfrey deal with serious injuries and the Twins lose a hundred games.

AL West

1.      Los Angeles Angels

The Angels come in looking like a top team on paper, but as they know from last year you have to perform on the field. Mike Trout (.326, 30, 83, 49 sb) batting leadoff is arguably the best player in baseball. If Albert Pujols (.285, 30,105) has a bounceback year and Josh Hamilton (.285, 43,128) remains injury fee, the Angles could also have the best 3-4 punch in the game. The rotation boasts star Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81) and southpaw CJ Wilson (13-10, 3.83) who looks to enjoy more success than his first go around. The backend of the rotation is all new with Jason Vargas (14-11, 3.85), Tommy Hanson (13-10, 4.48), and Joe Blanton (10-13, 4.71). The Angles are one of the favorites to make the World Series.

Best Case: Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton are an unstoppable combination, weaver and Wilson dominate, and the team rolls over the Tigers and into the World Series.

Worst Case: Pujols and Hamilton decline, the team visibly drags on the field, and the team misses the playoffs for a second consecutive year.

2.      Texas Rangers

The Rangers are still a strong offensive team with 3B Adrian Beltre (.321, 36, 102), 2B Ian Kinsler (.256, 19, 72), and OF Nelson Cruz (.260, 24, 90) leading the way in that department. SS Elvis Andrus (.286, 3, 62) is very strong in defensive and speed; him and rotation anchor Yu Darvish (16-9, 3.90) are blooming stars who are the future of this team. Matt Harrison (18-11, 3.29), Derek Holland (12-7, 4.67), and Alexi Ogando(2-0,3.27) all are young contributors to the rotation, and none have reached their peak. Super infield prospect Jurickson Profar (.176,1,2) will come up later in the season and hopefully will receive at least 300 Abs. Injured pitchers Colby Lewis (6-6,3.43), Martin Perez (1-4,5.45), and Neftali Feliz (3-1,3.16) will all be back at some point this season and will try to help this team down the stretch.

Best Case: Lewis, and Perez return from injury early, Cruz stays healthy all season, and the team is in the playoffs come October.

Worst Case: The injury bug hits the Rangers hard; the team proves to be too old and fragile. The Rangers miss out on the playoffs.

3.      Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are for real. Though they are devoid of any big names, with the possible exception of Yoenis Cespedes (.292, 23, 82), they have a great rotation with the likes of Jarrod Parker (13-8, 3.47), Brett Anderson (4-2, 2.57), and Tommy Milone. Young players Cespedes, Josh Reddick (.242, 32, 85), and AJ Griffin (7-1, 3.06) are in a great position to build on their performances from last year.  In a strong yet crowded outfield, Coco Crisp (.259, 11, 46,39sb) is the table-setter for this team with blazing speed and Chris Young (.231, 14, 41) adds some pop. The A’s have a strong back end of their bullpen, with closer Grant Balfour (2.53, 24sv), and Ryan Cook (2.09, 14sv), one of last year’s standout rookies.

Best Case: The walk-off hits keep coming, Cespedes reaches new heights, and the A’s once again are AL West champions.

Worst Case: The strong pitching is unable neutralize a weak lineup, and the A’s regress back to a mid-70’s win total.

4.      Seattle Mariners

The Mariners will again try to support their star pitcher Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06, 223k). They have added solid pieces in Kendrys Morales (.273, 22, 73) and Mike Morse (.291, 18, 62). Young players Michael Saunders (.247, 19, 57), Jesus Montero (.260, 15, 62), and Dustin Ackley (.226,12,50) try to take steps forward after each put forth a disappointing 2012 season. Third overall pick Mike Zunino won’t be in the minors for long; he’s a very polished prospect.

Best Case: Morales and Morse add some power, Hernandez dominates again, and the Mariners win 75 games.

Worst Case: The offence flounders, Hernandez regresses, and the Mariners lose 95 games.

5.      Houston Astros

The Astros are bad, really bad. They are without a doubt the worst team of the past decade. Their entire payroll is less than Alex Rodriguez’s salary this year. The scary part is that this season could prove to be even worse than last year, the by-product of their move from the NL Central to the AL West. Jose Altuve (.290, 7, 37,33sb) is solid at second, Bud Norris (7-13, 4.65, 8.8k/9) and Lucas Harrell (11-11, 3.76) could be average to slightly above average pitchers this season, and Jason Castro (.257,6,29) is improving at catcher. Everything else about this team is horrendous, proof as the Astros are going to rely on Carlos Pena (19hr, 61rbi), who hit .197 last season and Chris Carter (16hr,39rbi) who hit .239, in the three and four spots in the rotation. The lineup is trash, and the backend of the rotation is going to be pummeled.

Best Case: Pena and Carter break out, Norris miraculously dominates, and the Astros win 60 games.

Worst Case: The team plays to their talent and sets baseball’s single season loss record.

Playoff Predictions:

Al East: Rays

AL Central: Tigers

AL West: Angels

Wildcard #1: Blue Jays

Wildcard #2: Rangers

ALDS: Angels vs. Blue Jays, Tigers vs. Rays

ALCS: Angels vs. Tigers

ALCS Winner Tigers

Who will the Tigers play in the World Series? NL predictions coming soon!