Sunday, April 14, 2013

2013 AL Baseball Predictions


George Klein                           
AL EAST
1.      Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays boast one of the best rotations in baseball, even after trading James Shields (15-10, 3.52) to the Royals for uber-outfield prospect Wil Myers. Myers will begin the season in the minors to delay his free agency by a year, and the Rays’ other bats must compensate. Evan Longoria needs to remain healthy though this season (74 games played in 2012, 133 in 2011) for the Rays to achieve their lofty expectations for the season. Desmond Jennings will look to build on a mediocre season (.257, 15, 54, 38 SB), and put more of his tools and enormous potential to use.
Best Case: The staff performs at historic levels and with the additions of Myers, SS Yunel Escobar, and 2B Kelly Johnson to the lineup, the Rays head to the World Series
Worst Case: The pitching will still keep the team in ballgames, but with a lacking offence the Rays sink into the middle of the pack in the closely contested AL East.


2.      Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays went through massive changes in the offseason, making a shocking trade with the Marlins in an 11 player deal, signing R.A. Dickey (20-6, 2.73, 230 K) the NL Cy Young award winner and Melky Cabrera (.346, 11, 60, suspended 50 games for PEDs). Star shortstop Jose Reyes (.287,11,50,40 sb) looks to continue his strong level of production, while starting pitcher Josh Johnson (8-14, 3.81), also a part of the Marlins deal, is trying to get back  to his ace level of production,  but following years and years of injuries he might not have it in him. Mark Buerhle (13-13, 3.74) adds a veteran presence to the clubhouse while eating innings, and Jose Bautista (.241, 27, 65) needs to get back to his star form after a broken wrist injured his 2012 season.
Best Case: The offseason moves work with Dickey and Johnson leading the rotation, while Reyes and Cabrera as lineup anchors. Bautista comes back from his injury with no lingering problems, leading the team to an AL East win, and a battle in the ALCS.
Worst Case: Injuries to Johnson, Reyes, Bautista, and Brandon Morrow (10-7, 2.96) ruin this team, Cabrera and Buehrle flop, and the team ends up with an under .500 record.

3.      Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles sport a similar team that last year took a magical run to the postseason. The team is going to rely on the continued improvement of Chris Tillman (9-3, 2.93), Brian Matusz (6-10, 4.87), and Manny Machado (.262, 7, 26), along with their incredible record in one run games last season (29-9).  Star pitching prospect Dylan Bundy waits in the wings, and could provide a boost for the team in August and September. Brian Roberts (.182, 0, 5) and Nick Markakis (.298, 13, 54) will look to recover their pre-injury form; this will prove especially hard for Roberts who has been sidelined with concussions the past three seasons. Adam Jones (.287, 32, 82), and Matt Wieters (.249, 23, 83) are the growing stars and are the backbone of this team.
Best Case: 2012 proves to not be a fluke year; Machado shows great improvement at the plate while Bundy dominates down the stretch. The team gains a wildcard spot in the postseason.
Worst Case: The young players fail to improve, the O’s pitching flounders, and the team ends up with a mid-70s win total, far out of playoff contention.

4.      Boston Red Sox
After their worst season in years, a disaster under Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox must regroup to regain the affection of Red Sox Nation. Having added Shane Victorino (.255, 11, 55), Ryan Dempster (12-8, 3.38), Mike Napoli (.227, 24, 56), and Joel Hanrahan (2.72, 36 sv), the Red Sox will boast many new faces. But in order to get back to the level of play they were used to they must receive bounce back seasons from Jacoby Ellsbury (.271, 4, 26) and Jon Lester (9-14, 4.82). Will Middlebrooks (.288, 15, 54) at third needs to continue to provide a solid lineup spot.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is a star in the making in leftfield, adding a burst of enthusiasm and youth the team desperately needs.
Best Case: The clubhouse chemistry improves under the leadership of John Farrell, Ellsbury plays 150 games, the team wins 80 games and things look good for 2014.
Worst Case: The team plays old and lifeless and finishes last in the AL East in a second consecutive season for the first time since 1930.
5.      New York Yankees
This is finally the year. The dynasty is over. The Yankees are old and desolated by injuries. Teixeira(.251,24,84), Granderson (.232,43,106), Jeter(.316,15,58), and Alex Rodriguez (.272,18,57) are all casualties. Mariano Rivera (2.16, 5 sv) is still in rehab from Tommy John surgery and it could be more than a month before he is fully ready to play. Star pitching prospect Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances are still two years away from major league ready. Simply put, the the short term outlook of this team is the bleakest in almost two decades.
Best Case: The team battles hard in the AL East before fading from contention due to age in late August.
Worst Case: The team plays disinterested and soft and the Yankees fall far into the basement.

Detroit Tigers
1.      The Tigers look good this season, really really good. They have Miguel Cabrera (.330, 44,139), the Triple Crown Winner and reigning AL MVP. They have Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64, 239k), 2011 Al CY Young award winner, and the rest of a very strong rotation with Doug Fister (10-10, 3.45), Anibal Sanchez (9-13, 3.86), and Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74). The Tigers have added outfielder Tori Hunter (.313, 16, 92) and Victor Martinez (out last season with a torn ACL) to an already potent lineup. With the little competition in the AL Central, the Tigers will coast to the postseason. The only question is how far in the postseason they will go.
Best case: Cabrera and Verlander dominate once again, Martinez shows no ill effects of his injury, and the Tigers roll to the ALCS and beyond.
Worst Case: A shaky bullpen unravels and the Tigers lose in the first round of postseason action.
2.      Chicago White Sox
After a surprisingly good year in which they finished second in the AL Central, battling the Tigers all year long, the White Sox look to Chris Sale (17-8,3.05) and Jake Peavy (11-12,3.37) for the backbone rotation. For the White Sox to continue their strong run Alex Rios needs to break his inconsistency year to year (.304,25,91 in 2012, .227,13,44 in 2011) and Paul Konerko (.298,26,75) must continue to provide as the Lineups most consistent and powerful source.
Best Case: Konerko and Adam Dunn (.204, 41,96) launch a ton of balls and the team fights the Tigers all season.
Worst Case: The boppers show their age, Sale and Peavy regress, and the team stumbles to a middle of the pack AL Central finish.


3.      Kansas City Royals
The Royals are a young improving team. After an offseason trade for James Shields (15-10, 3.52, 223k) the Royals have their first bona-fide ace in years. In the lineup, Billy Butler (.313, 29,107) is a mainstay at the third spot providing power and Alex Gordon (.294, 14, 72) has developed into a strong defensive outfielder and table setter. Mike Moustakas (.242, 20, 73) looks to continue to improve on his pitch recognition skills and Eric Hosmer(.232,14,60) is trying to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore slump. A very young team the Royals will struggle mightily at some points this season but the long term outlook is optimistic.
Best Case: James Shields leads a strong rotation, all the young players continue to improve, and the Royals make a run at the second wild-card spot.
Worst Case: The young players flop, Shields is a bust, and the Royals have a 70 win season.

4.      Cleveland Indians
Terry Francona brings a new energy to a team that oftentimes played lackluster last season. Justin Masterson (11-15, 4.93) and Ubaldo Jimenez (9-17, 5.40) at the top of the rotation need to regroup after taking large steps backward last season. Asdrubal Cabrera (.270, 16, 68) and Jason Kipnis (.257, 14, 76,31sb) make up a very good middle infield. New additions Michael Bourn (.274, 9, 57,42sb), Nick Swisher (.272, 24, 93), and Mark Reynolds (.221, 23, 69) will provide speed and pop (Bourn the speed, Swisher and Reynolds the power). Star pitching prospect Trevor Bauer (1-2, 6.06) awaits in the wings at Triple-A and will most likely be called up mid-season.
Best Case: Swisher and Reynolds each hit 30, Bourn steals 45+ bags, Masterson and Jimenez regain their old form, and the Indians flirt with an above .500 record.

5.      Minnesota Twins
The Twins are in rebuilding mode. They will rely on rookie Aaron Hicks in the leadoff spot and in center field. New faces Vance Worley (6-9, 4.20) and Kevin Correia (12-11, 4.21) anchor the rotation while Mike Pelfrey (0-0, 2.29) tries to comeback from Tommy John surgery. The Twins still sport a lineup core of Joe Mauer (.310, 10, 85), Josh Willingham (.260, 35,110), and Justin Morneau (.267, 19, 77). Glen Perkins (2.56, 16sv) is looking like a blossoming star in the closer position. This team has valuable pieces, but it will be a couple of years before they are competitive in the AL Central.
Best Case: Morneau improves with a second injury free season, Pelfrey gets back to his 2011 season from, and the outlook is bright for the Twins
Worst Case: Mauer, Morneau, and Pelfrey deal with serious injuries and the Twins lose a hundred games.


AL West
1.      Los Angeles Angels
The Angels come in looking like a top team on paper, but as they know from last year you have to perform on the field. Mike Trout (.326, 30, 83, 49 sb) batting leadoff is arguably the best player in baseball. If Albert Pujols (.285, 30,105) has a bounceback year and Josh Hamilton (.285, 43,128) remains injury fee, the Angles could also have the best 3-4 punch in the game. The rotation boasts star Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81) and southpaw CJ Wilson (13-10, 3.83) who looks to enjoy more success than his first go around. The backend of the rotation is all new with Jason Vargas (14-11, 3.85), Tommy Hanson (13-10, 4.48), and Joe Blanton (10-13, 4.71). The Angles are one of the favorites to make the World Series.
Best Case: Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton are an unstoppable combination, weaver and Wilson dominate, and the team rolls over the Tigers and into the World Series.
Worst Case: Pujols and Hamilton decline, the team visibly drags on the field, and the team misses the playoffs for a second consecutive year.




2.      Texas Rangers
The Rangers are still a strong offensive team with 3B Adrian Beltre (.321, 36, 102), 2B Ian Kinsler (.256, 19, 72), and OF Nelson Cruz (.260, 24, 90) leading the way in that department. SS Elvis Andrus (.286, 3, 62) is very strong in defensive and speed; him and rotation anchor Yu Darvish (16-9, 3.90) are blooming stars who are the future of this team. Matt Harrison (18-11, 3.29), Derek Holland (12-7, 4.67), and Alexi Ogando(2-0,3.27) all are young contributors to the rotation, and none have reached their peak. Super infield prospect Jurickson Profar (.176,1,2) will come up later in the season and hopefully will receive at least 300 Abs. Injured pitchers Colby Lewis (6-6,3.43), Martin Perez (1-4,5.45), and Neftali Feliz (3-1,3.16) will all be back at some point this season and will try to help this team down the stretch.
Best Case: Lewis, and Perez return from injury early, Cruz stays healthy all season, and the team is in the playoffs come October.
Worst Case: The injury bug hits the Rangers hard; the team proves to be too old and fragile. The Rangers miss out on the playoffs.

3.      Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are for real. Though they are devoid of any big names, with the possible exception of Yoenis Cespedes (.292, 23, 82), they have a great rotation with the likes of Jarrod Parker (13-8, 3.47), Brett Anderson (4-2, 2.57), and Tommy Milone. Young players Cespedes, Josh Reddick (.242, 32, 85), and AJ Griffin (7-1, 3.06) are in a great position to build on their performances from last year.  In a strong yet crowded outfield, Coco Crisp (.259, 11, 46,39sb) is the table-setter for this team with blazing speed and Chris Young (.231, 14, 41) adds some pop. The A’s have a strong back end of their bullpen, with closer Grant Balfour (2.53, 24sv), and Ryan Cook (2.09, 14sv), one of last year’s standout rookies.
Best Case: The walk-off hits keep coming, Cespedes reaches new heights, and the A’s once again are AL West champions.
Worst Case: The strong pitching is unable neutralize a weak lineup, and the A’s regress back to a mid-70’s win total.

4.      Seattle Mariners
The Mariners will again try to support their star pitcher Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06, 223k). They have added solid pieces in Kendrys Morales (.273, 22, 73) and Mike Morse (.291, 18, 62). Young players Michael Saunders (.247, 19, 57), Jesus Montero (.260, 15, 62), and Dustin Ackley (.226,12,50) try to take steps forward after each put forth a disappointing 2012 season. Third overall pick Mike Zunino won’t be in the minors for long; he’s a very polished prospect.


Best Case: Morales and Morse add some power, Hernandez dominates again, and the Mariners win 75 games.
Worst Case: The offence flounders, Hernandez regresses, and the Mariners lose 95 games.
5.      Houston Astros
The Astros are bad, really bad. They are without a doubt the worst team of the past decade. Their entire payroll is less than Alex Rodriguez’s salary this year. The scary part is that this season could prove to be even worse than last year, the by-product of their move from the NL Central to the AL West. Jose Altuve (.290, 7, 37,33sb) is solid at second, Bud Norris (7-13, 4.65, 8.8k/9) and Lucas Harrell (11-11, 3.76) could be average to slightly above average pitchers this season, and Jason Castro (.257,6,29) is improving at catcher. Everything else about this team is horrendous, proof as the Astros are going to rely on Carlos Pena (19hr, 61rbi), who hit .197 last season and Chris Carter (16hr,39rbi) who hit .239, in the three and four spots in the rotation. The lineup is trash, and the backend of the rotation is going to be pummeled.
Best Case: Pena and Carter break out, Norris miraculously dominates, and the Astros win 60 games.
Worst Case: The team plays to their talent and sets baseball’s single season loss record.

Playoff Predictions:
Al East: Rays
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
Wildcard #1: Blue Jays
Wildcard #2: Rangers
ALDS: Angels vs. Blue Jays, Tigers vs. Rays
ALCS: Angels vs. Tigers
ALCS Winner Tigers
Who will the Tigers play in the World Series? NL predictions coming soon!





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