Gauging Importance…

There are teams that are little more than nine guys with a keeper behind them feeding one guy the ball in the hope he does something special. Barcelona, in the wake of their close victory against PSG, having to rely on an injured Messi in order to win, have been accused of this.

But this accusation is a little inaccurate, because it fails to recognize that any team without their starting center forward would struggle against the Paris outfit, which is rapidly improving, due in equal measure to the fact that they have bought their way to European relevance and the fact that have steadily been gelling as a team throughout the season. Messi is really irreplaceable in many ways. His ability to initiate the attack allows Xavi to sit behind Iniesta, and gives Barcelona a much more free form attack that is a nightmare to defend against. His individual ability to bounce around a back line like a pinball wizard and then pop up one on one with the keeper for an easy finish is near miraculous. If Messi is not the best player in the world, he’s the second best. It’s tough to replace that no matter who you are.

Real without Cristiano Ronaldo is a very different side. It packs less of a punch on the break, (score counter attack goals at half the rate when he leaves the field) it requires more patience to break down a defense, and it’s generally less pleasant to watch. But Ronaldo does not equate to victory for Real Madrid quite the same way as Messi does for Barcelona. Without the goals scored by Cristiano or Lionel, Barcelona are sixth and Real Madrid sit in first. Messi's goals usually are difference makers, Ronaldo has a lot of superfluous goals in blowout wins.

 Barcelona use Messi to turn possession into goals. Without him, the ball gets played forward almost a quarter less than when he is on the field. He turns the Barcelona possession into goals. He pops up at the edge of the box, and makes magic happen. 

Real Madrid uses Ozil for that same role. Ronaldo is used to score goals, many goals, beautiful goals. But he isn’t the creative center of the team, and he doesn’t score as many important goals as Messi as evidenced by the table above. His on ball skills are the best in the world, and his range of goals is greater, but it’s more of a vaudeville act than timely and useful contributions.

All this turns to a focal point, zooming in on North London, more specifically White Hart Lane. Tottenham are going in to the last stretch of the season with Bale out for two weeks, and not at his best for who knows how long. Thankfully for all Tottenham supporters, a throng in which I am included, the next two weeks are less sparsely populated with contests as possible. Their game against Chelsea is postponed, which they’ll need him for desperately.

Tottenham statistically aren’t doomed, but anyone who watches them play without Bale notices a distinct lack of a certain something. The team plays without panache, without as much intrepidness. Statistically speaking, Tottenham should be fine. Having Bale doesn’t seem to improve them too much, until you watch them. Technically speaking, Tottenham haven’t won a game in 2013 without Bale scoring in it. But earlier this season that wasn’t the case. The broad stroke doesn’t look too bad, but it’s hard to convince a Tottenham supporter that.

Stats show how pivotal Bale has become. In the eight games he has been missing this season, Tottenham have roughly the same winning percentage and goal differential.His absence earlier in the season was not nearly the calamity his absence now is. Tottenham drew against a beatable Everton squad they deserved to lose to. The lack of incisiveness heretofore masked by the flying Welshman was all too apparent. Bale’s heroics mask two important and specific problems for Tottenham:

A)        Tottenham has no one else to unlock a side. Bale creates more chances than anyone else in the squad. Although he is a left-winger, he creates more chances than anyone else by a margin of eight chances created. His creation chart shows a greatly varied set of chances created. It looks more like Mesut Ozil's than Ronaldo's. He has created more chances on the right wing than Lennon, who plays that position as his primary role.

B)        Tottenham has no person to put the ball in the back of the net consistently outside of Bale. Adebayor is not playing like he did last year, Defoe is not the striker they need, and the lack of depth at that position may very well end up costing them Champions League football, and subsequently, Bale, who’ll most likely seek Champions league football at the Bernabeu. Tottenham may then go back to mid-table obscurity for a long time.

Tottenham’s situation boils down to a system that is missing an integral piece. If the individual quality of Bale mixed with generous amounts of luck, they may escape into the Champions League, however unlikely that may be at this junction. In order to improve, they must find the solutions to these problems, or risk all the gains they have made over the past half-decade.

This all gets distilled into the question of what makes a footballer important. It’s not necessarily his quality, or his statistics. It’s what his team is without him. Real is still a force to be reckoned with when Ronaldo is not there, due to its star power at other positions. Barcelona suffers, but still is a strong side capable of winning games, but without Messi, Barcelona is not the cream of the crop. They become a boring holding team without much venom in the final third. Tottenham without Bale are neutered. Great players have always made the difference. So has their absence.